P&L: 25-Aug-2017

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Weekly P&L: -5.4%

Mistakes Made

  • No mistakes made this week

Successes

  • Didn’t change execution plan on DBK despite almost hitting stop loss
  • Added microcap strategy to site

Plan Going Forward

  • One of our rules is to master one strategy at a time, or in our case master one product at a time to see how it can fit our pre-defined successful patterns so our plan is to continue to add one instrument at a time to the watchlist
  • Stay focused on the strategy, not on specific tactics
  • Create a sources of volatility watchlist with the goal of determining where potential opportunities may lie

P&L: 18-Aug-2017

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Weekly P&L: -3.5%

Mistakes Made

  • Holding on to error trades in the hope to catch a small “bounce”

Successes

  • Stuck to plan on EOS position, momentum failed to eventuate so ended up cutting losses before it tanked further
  • Stuck to trade plan on NOBL, negligible profit however without properly evaluating the bankruptcy risk can’t hold

Plan Going Forward

 

  • Modified the strategy to focus on mistakes made by the market rather than trying to outsmart the market
  • Adding macro strategy to the watchlist next week as well as continuing to add stocks that potentially fall into one of our trade plans
  • Strategy going forward is to only have one open trade at a time, risk 6% of account per trade on opportunities where potential payoff is greater than the risk
  • A 6% win per month compounds to 100% per year, that’s the target
  • Underlying account balance is by default held in USD but can be switched into other assets if return prospects are obviously better and max drawdown is constrained to 10%
  • Currently holding SGD for the ability to make faster transfers between trading accounts

P&L: 11-Aug-2017

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Weekly P&L: -15.8%

Mistakes made

  • Having more than one open position
  • Taking on too much drawdown risk

Notes

Too much focus on potential valuation of securities. Not enough focus on trading edge which comes from trend following overlooked assets. Added drawdown risk metrics to increase visibility of the risk of blowing up.

Going forward, valuation techniques will only be used to determine if its preferable to hold a specific asset instead of USD as our base currency. These calculations are rough and hence only extremely safe and obviously undervalued securities should be held as a “base currency”.

Posted a new set of trading rules to make sure we continue to focus purely on our edge of trend following overlooked securities. Cutting all existing positions. Will restart trading following the rules.

P&L: 05-Aug-2017

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Weekly P&L +6.8k: BIDU +2.6, DBK +6.2, ACX -6.4, crpyto +4.4.

Mistakes made

  • Working GTC limit orders below market without checking news announcements daily, guaranteed to get bad fills sooner or later doing this

Notes

Even with only 5 stocks on the watchlist, the daily process is becoming time consuming after considering that on each stock there’s probably only one good trade per year to be made. The plan for next week is to reverse the process. At the moment we study stocks individually looking for our specific trade patterns. Going forward we’re also going to create a system to detect stocks matching criteria relevant to each trade pattern. Over time we’ll identify which approach is the most profitable.

P&L: 29-July-2017

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Weekly P&L -0.3k: +6.5k BIDU, -7k crpyto assets, futures trading +0.2k.

Despite facing some operational issues reducing position size we could take in BIDU, our strategy was sound and the stock is now trading at our buy price limit of $220. Looking to take BIDU off the table at $230 next week to free up capital for other high-alpha trades.

Our crypto strategy wasn’t quite segregated enough. There were originally two trades: first buy into crypto assets as a value investment during a liquidity crisis or price dip; second provide liquidity to the market during liquidity crisis with the aim of getting out within a week. After profiting from the liquidity crisis we decided to scale up our value investment but in hindsight probably should have been more patient and timed the entry a bit better.

Main reasons for holding EOS over ETH:

  • EOS product is an infrastructure solution for future users of blockchain
  • Given ICO was hot, potential for 100% upside again on breaking news (blockchain scheduled to go live in September)