Tierion ICO strategy

The best analysis on the web that we could find on the Tierion ICO is here: https://crushcrypto.com/analysis-of-tierion-ico/

If you want to watch a video on what Tierion actually is:

 

Still confused? There are actually a few key, non-blockchain-technical reasons that made this ICO stand out to us:

  • Product revolves around blockchain infrastructure rather than a niche marketplace
  • Existing client base (of 100+ users), business founded in 2015
  • Raised $1m in April 2016 with original backers looking to inject more this round
  • Existing industry partnerships with Microsoft and Philips

With the above in mind the question now becomes, what is the safest execution strategy for participating in the ICO?

To have alpha on the flip, we want to only participate in the ICO if its oversubscribed. But how can we tell when its about to become oversubscribed? Well the beauty of the blockchain is that its a PUBLIC ledger and there exist tools such as ether.camp to view all transactions hitting any given address.

ethercamp

We can see that as of 24-Jul 11am Singapore time (GMT+8) a total of ~9000 ether ($2m) has been deposited into the pre-sale address. So should we participate in the pre-sale?

It would be a good idea to participate in the pre-sale if the public ICO ends up being so hot that its very difficult to acquire any tokens (sells out in under 30min). But if the ICO takes longer than 30min to sell out, we can simply watch ether.camp and wait until the ICO is 80-90% funded before getting involved. By trading in this way we maximise the likelihood of only getting involved in the ICO if it is going to be oversubscribed.

A possible improvement to this strategy would be to identify pre-sale transaction characteristics that indicate a super-hot ICO. For example potential research questions:

  • Do super-hot ICOs have pre-sales that contain many smaller transactions or a few large whales investing?
  • Do super-hot ICOs have pre-sales that are also super hot and sell out under 30min or is that irrelevant?

At the time of writing we don’t have enough data so will not try to guess as to how hot the Tierion ICO will be.

 

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